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Thursday, October 20, 2011

Nelson warming up, but...

About a week ago, I wrote an article that said Riley Nelson was a "disguised mistake." I still think there is some validity to that, just not as much as I might have emphasized.

The fact of the matter is, Nelson is winning. What else matters? Numbers? He will not win any statistical battles with other quarterbacks. Fan approval? The players venture to say they don't listen to what fans have to say, and they don't read the press clippings. Is that entirely true? Probably not, but the fact remains that Nelson is winning for this ball club, and that's why he continues to play.

Nelson is prone to turnovers.
Even against below average competition
However, I do still hold some reservations about the lefty QB.

I still don't agree that he should be given a longer leash than Heaps. He still turns it over, almost twice as much as Heaps. In fact, is turnover/quarter ratio says just that. Heaps has played in 18.5 quarters, to Nelsons 9.5 quarters. Heaps has thrown 5 INT's to Nelson's 3 picks on the year. Interestingly, they both have thrown a pick-6 as well. Heaps has an unofficial count of 2 fumbles, where Nelson has 3. That makes the total of turnovers per QB: Heaps 7, and Nelson 6. The ratio of quarters/turnover is roughly 2.64:1 (quarters/TO) for Heaps and 1.58:1 for Nelson.

What I am trying to say is simply this. Nelson is winning, yes. But he should be destroying the teams he has played in comparison to Jake Heaps. He turns the ball over 60% more than Heaps, and is only beating San Jose State by 13?! That is not okay. The argument has been made that Nelson puts points up. He has, again certainly more than Heaps. BUT HE IS PLAYING SAN JOSE STATE!!! He better be putting up more points against WAC teams.

I am warming up to Nelson, only because he is winning. But if he continues to turn the ball over at this rate, his leash has got to be shortened, and true solution be found. When BYU plays TCU, the Horned Frogs will turn 3 turnovers into at least 13 points if not 21, unlike San Jose State.

Its time to produce points, without the turnover game continuing. That will be the downfall of Nelson. That is where I completely agree with Bronco not naming an official starter the rest of the way. This allows for the competition to remain open, and for Heaps to possibly have the fire lit under him. Or maybe somebody else that wants to take care of the ball and get some wins.

Do I hear time for James Lark?

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