Podcast, 9-30-2012 - Qb Controversy and Tough Games Ahead

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Qb Controversy, Dominant Defense, Hoffman, and PATs

It's hard to really learn a whole lot from a game against a team as bad as Hawaii, but there are a few things that stand out as take-aways from BYU's romping of the Rainbow Warriors last night.

1. We have a quarterback controversy

Well, it's not really a Qb controversy because Bronco has definitively said that Riley Nelson is the starter if he is healthy. But that decision will come under heavy scrutiny after Taysom Hill's performance. While his passing stats were lack-luster (12/21, 112 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), his legs lit up the atrocious Hawaii defense as he rushed for 143 yards on 15 carries. At times he was probably a bit too run-happy, and I would have liked to see him settle in the pocket a little bit more. But the newly renovated offensive line had trouble keeping the pocket in tact for long, so much of the time Hill had no choice but to tuck it. Aside from some accuracy issues which led directly to his one interception  Hill looked more than competent, and, in my opinion, a much better option than Riley Nelson.

2. BYU has a good defense

I will devote no more than three sentences to this section. BYU held Hawaii to 149 total yards and forced three turnovers. In three out of the five games BYU has played, the defense has given up exactly zero touchdowns and is only giving up 6.4 points per game (when the defensive TDs given up to Utah and Boise State are considered).

3. Hoffman is a Riley man

Last year when Nelson came in at the end of the Utah State game, Cody Hoffman came alive. He started jumping and diving to catch throws that he would have missed if thrown by Heaps. He had a spring in his step for the rest of the season as he became Nelson's favorite (if not only) target. Last night, Hoffman looked uninspired, uninterested. Even as Hill threw to him in the end zone twice in a row (one ending in an offensive PI call and the other incomplete), Hoffman slowly jogged back to the huddle as if obligated to be out there. I hope I am wrong, but I can't help but conclude that Hoffman has some kind of special kinship with Nelson that makes him really want to play with him. Hill did a great job of spreading the throws around and getting Ross Apo involved, and I wonder whether Hoffman doesn't like that. I don't want this to be true, and I admit that it is pure speculation, but I'm calling it how I see it.

4. Our place-kicking game is bad

As I tweeted during the game, Bronco is looking more and more smart for going for two against Boise State last week. Against Hawaii, Riley Stephenson had one extra point blocked and missed another by his own doing. He has also missed field goals from as short as 13 yards. This puts extra pressure on the already anemic offense to get into the end zone because they know they cannot rely on three points once we enter the red zone.

This is an unfortunate time to still be struggling with issues like place kicking, offensive line communication, and quarterback controversies. BYU has tough games coming up against Utah State, Oregon State, Notre Dame, and Georgia Tech, all of which could get ugly if these issues aren't ironed out quickly.

Hawaii predictions

Little Bro says:

This game was a lot easier to predict before the season started. BYU was supposed to have this dominant defense with a good offense that would put up points and get wins. Now, a third of the way through the season only half of that has held true. The cougars have a defense that is one of the tops in the nation in nearly every category statistically. The offense... well that's another story. They have struggled to find their identity, and their strengths. The offensive line has yet to show up, and their pass game can't seem to find their NFL caliber player in Ross Apo. However, tomorrow against Hawaii could be the remedy for this ailing squad.

Hawaii comes in after getting obliterated by Nevada, in Hawaii, last week 69-24. The Hawaii defense gave up over 350 yards on the ground and 7 touchdowns to ONE player, Nevada running back Stefphon Johnson. The defense plays mainly man to man, and obviously isnt their strength. I look for BYU to exploit the weakness of the Warriors defense and have a big game, regardless of who plays quarterback. This team just isn't a great team, and historically doesn't win in Provo.

I see Taysom Hill getting the start, and having a few cobwebs to start off. However, after a quarter of jitters he cools down and has a respectable game 18-32 with 217 yards passing. Throw in the jitters and he throws his first career interception, but also throws for 2 TD's and runs for another.

The one thing that can be pointed out about BYU's defense is their lack of taking the ball away. I foresee BYU getting 2 takeaways tomorrow, if not more via interception and a fumble.

BYU takes care of business and walks away with another comfortable home win, and gets their confidence going going into some good games with Oregon State and Utah State coming up.

BYU 31 - Hawaii 10

Big Bro says:

31 points just sound unbelievable to me right now with this stagnant offense, but Little Bro has a point that perhaps the only thing more pathetic than BYU's offense is Hawaii's defense. It will be a race to the bottom between the Hawaii D and BYU O to see who will be worse. Thankfully, I think the Cougars can come out on top and pull off the win.

I anticipate the defense dominating (and the sun coming up in the morning). I also anticipate Taysom Hill to either start or get most of the snaps. I agree with Little Bro that this offense will, as usual, come out of the gates slow and probably not score more than a field goal in the first quarter. But by the end of the game the Cougars will have a handful of touchdowns and a comfortable lead. I predict the defense will pitch another TD shutout and only give up one field goal.

BYU 30 - Hawaii 3

Riley's New Role

We all saw the Boise State game. We all wish we hadn't. The game was poorly played by both sides, and even more poorly coached by both sides. He Bronco (Mendenhall and Boise State) made crucial errors in play calling and decisions, that eventually led to a BYU loss 7-6 in Boise.

The most critical mistake however, came at the hands of the visiting Bronco Mendenhall. He should have pulled Riley Nelson before he had. In retrospect, that could have lost the game. If Riley Nelson comes out 1 possession earlier, he doesn't throw the pick-six that leads to BYU's demise against the home Bronco's.

I, for one, had previously jumped on the Riley Nelson bandwagon, as he has showed amazing leadership. However, after the last two weeks and seeing his body language, I am retracting that support. If Riley was truly a leader and team player, he would have sat himself in the last two games, and allowed for a healthy quarterback to lead the team. However, he was selfish and played through the pain, and caused more bad than good.

I still think Riley can be a good leader. However, his job at least for this week against Hawaii is to support Taysom Hill in the starting role. Being a cheerleader on the sidelines will be just as important as throwing the passes. Only Hill in this case, is more suited to make those throws than Riley Nelson.

Game Threes Not Kind to BYU

On this Holy War Eve, I find myself browsing through the BYU stats, trying to figure out the Cougars' chances at beating the Utes this year.

Florida State spoiled BYU's 2009 and 2010 campaigns
 on game three of BYU's schedule.

Unfortunately, I uncovered something that does not bode well for the Cougs. Since taking over, Bronco Mendenhall's teams have only won one (1) game three. That win came in 2008, a 59-0 shalacking of UCLA in Provo.

Game three has been a tough slot in the Cougars' schedule for some reason. In 2005, TCU snuck into the BYU schedule early to accommodate BYU's late-season trip to South Bend, beating BYU by 1 in overtime. In 2006, Boston College stole a win in another overtime game. In 2007, Tulsa beat the Cougars in a track meet, 55-47. After beating Oklahoma and Tulane to start the season, in 2009 BYU was the trendy pick to bust the BCS and possibly be the first non-BCS team to break into the national championship game before Florida State humbled the Cougars at home, 54-28. The next year the Seminole proved it wasn't a fluke and sent BYU home from Tallahassee with a 34-10 loss. And, of course, last year was the day that will live in infamy among the Cougar faithful as Utah was not a polite guest in Provo, handing BYU a 54-10 loss, causing 7 turnovers.

It is notable that all of these losses came to reputable teams. It's not as though there is some strange curse on weak three such that BYU is losing to UNLV or New mexico State. But nonetheless, week three seems to be BYU's humbler every year.

Is this the year BYU shakes the trend and pulls out a win in Salt Lake?

BYU Will Be Fine, Notre Dame or Not

Could ND's move to the ACC tackle the Cougar's independence plans?

Recent announcements by Notre Dame that the Irish will be taking its non-football sports to the ACC have BYU fans up in arms. Because ND also agreed to play 5 football games every year against the ACC, Cougar fans are seeing the supposed writing on the wall that ND will attempt to cut some games against BYU to make room for the ACC contract while retaining some of the storied rivalries such as USC, Michigan, and Navy.

But let's not forget one thing: Notre Dame is still independent in football. The switch to the ACC does not indicate, as many of suggested, that independence is not possible anymore. It only indicates what we all already knew: the Big East is dead.

Sure, the 5 game deal with the ACC might make things a bit more difficult, but BYU and Notre Dame have a healthy relationship that will make ditching the contract difficult for the Irish. Let's not sugar coat it; the 6-game series means a lot to BYU's independence prospects. Because of that, BYU will work day and night to make sure that all 6 games are played.

I still think that the Big 12 will eventually come knocking on BYU's door, this time ready to accept the Cougars' special limitations. Until then, BYU is in good position to sit tight on independence.

If White is Hurt, Another Advantage for Cougars

I believe BYU is the better team in this year's edition of the rivalry. I truly do. I think they are more experienced, they have better leadership and they have more play makers. Maybe that's biased, oh well. That being said, another reason has recently surfaced that could give BYU another advantage in Saturday's showdown.

Word on the street is that Utah's starting running back, John White IV is hurt. He rolled his ankle in the loss against Utah State and saw limited action after the sprain. There has been no official word down from the hill whether or not they are sitting white out against the Cougars, but with him hampered, that takes away the Utes' biggest offensive weapon.

You may remember White torched BYU last season running for 174 yards and 3 scores in the blowout. Now, while many of those yards came in the second half when everything came undone for the Cougars, he is still a threat to be respected.

If White cannot go, or is limited in his role, this could be all the Cougars' D needs to pitch an impressive game against the boys up north.